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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 15-C.Tune up the middle to LAC 45 for no gain (93-O.Ogbonnia; 52-K.Mack).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model