4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.49 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model