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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:43) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP