4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 68-J.Salyer reported in as eligible. 28-H.Haskins up the middle to ARI 28 for 2 yards (43-J.Luketa).

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.70 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model