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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP