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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model