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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model