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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
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WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 16:05 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

CAR
24.3%
WAS
75.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 19
–
WAS 28
Projected margin: WAS by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CAR

Claudin Cherelus LB Out Hamstring
Josey Jewell LB Out Hamstring
Taylor Moton T Out Elbow
Jon Rhattigan LB Out Knee
A'Shawn Robinson DE Out Knee
Jonathon Brooks RB Out Knee
Jaden Crumedy DT Doubtful Ankle
Sam Franklin S Doubtful Foot
Jadeveon Clowney LB Doubtful Shoulder
Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Back
Dane Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Diontae Johnson WR Questionable Ribs
David Moore WR Questionable Knee
Yosuah Nijman T Questionable Knee
LaBryan Ray DE Questionable Ankle
Andrew Raym C Note Raym, Andrew has cleared concussion protocol and does not have a game status.

WAS

Dorance Armstrong DE Out Rib
Tyler Owens S Out Shin
Jordan Magee LB Questionable Knee
Clelin Ferrell DE Questionable Knee
Brian Robinson RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 7
–
WAS 40

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:27 TD WAS (11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 03:21 FG WAS (3:21) 3-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CAR 0 – WAS 10
  • Q2 11:40 TD WAS (11:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 16
  • Q2 05:43 FG WAS (5:43) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CAR 0 – WAS 20
  • Q2 00:16 TD WAS (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 26
  • Q3 08:57 TD WAS (8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-B.Sinnott for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 33
  • Q3 01:36 FG WAS (1:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CAR 0 – WAS 37
  • Q4 11:43 TD CAR (11:43) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – WAS 37
  • Q4 04:58 FG WAS (4:58) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CAR 7 – WAS 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:21) 3-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (:41) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to CAR 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to WAS 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 41 for 15 yards (41-J.Windmon).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:34) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 38 for -2 yards (6-D.Fowler).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 79%

    (5:43) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%

    (2:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to WAS 8, impetus ends at WAS 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-41-J.Windmon.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:17) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to WAS 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.82 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 96%

    (1:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (4:58) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:44) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to WAS 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-84-F.Franks.