4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to WAS 8, impetus ends at WAS 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-41-J.Windmon.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model