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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 38 for -2 yards (6-D.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model