4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 88

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to WAS 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 41 for 15 yards (41-J.Windmon).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model