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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 11

Washington Commanders 37 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP