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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 3-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP