Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 34

(7:17) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to WAS 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.42 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model