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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 31

Washington Commanders 17 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model