4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Thursday 2024-10-10 · 20:15 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SF
52.8%
SEA
47.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.184 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Jordan Elliott DT Out Knee
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Out Calf
Talanoa Hufanga S Out Wrist
Jake Moody K Out Right Ankle
Chris Conley WR Questionable Oblique
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Knee

SEA

Byron Murphy DT Out Hamstring
Uchenna Nwosu LB Out Thigh
Tariq Woolen CB Out Ankle
Derick Hall LB Questionable Foot
Boye Mafe LB Questionable Knee
Julian Love S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 36
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:02 FG SF (4:02) 35-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 13:42 TD SF (13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – SEA 0
  • Q2 11:50 FG SF (11:50) 35-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – SEA 0
  • Q2 02:36 FG SF (2:36) 35-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 16 – SEA 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG SEA (:03) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 16 – SEA 3
  • Q3 10:12 TD SF (10:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – SEA 3
  • Q3 10:07 TD SEA 35-M.Wright kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to SEA 3. 1-L.Shenault for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – SEA 9
  • Q3 01:28 TD SEA (1:28) 9-K.Walker left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – SEA 16
  • Q4 06:24 TD SF (6:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 29 – SEA 17
  • Q4 01:49 TD SEA (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 29 – SEA 23
  • Q4 01:20 TD SF (1:20) 44-K.Juszczyk right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 35 – SEA 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:02) 35-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to SF 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-J.Cowing to SF 24 for 11 yards (42-D.Thomas).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:19) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SF 24, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 88%

    (11:50) 35-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (2:36) 35-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (:03) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 28%

    (7:11) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (15:00) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-50-J.Graham. San Francisco challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to SF 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-J.Cowing to SF 12 for no gain (33-D.Williams).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 54%

    (9:35) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-18-C.Conley.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at SF 39 for 12 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 56%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right.