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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-18-C.Conley.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP