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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 35-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP