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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 35-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP