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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP