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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 17 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to SF 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-J.Cowing to SF 12 for no gain (33-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model