Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(1:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to SF 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-J.Cowing to SF 24 for 11 yards (42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model