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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

ARI
32.5%
GB
67.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.221 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.003 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Darius Robinson DT Out Calf
Zay Jones WR Out Not injury related - other
Christian Jones T Questionable Ankle
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Hamstring
Matt Prater K Questionable Left Knee
Garrett Williams CB Questionable Groin

GB

Devonte Wyatt DT Out Ankle
Arron Mosby DE Questionable Shoulder
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Groin
Jordan Morgan T Questionable Shoulder
Rasheed Walker T Questionable Knee
Christian Watson WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 13
–
GB 34

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:00 TD GB (9:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARI-2-Ma.Wilson has returned to the game. ARI 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 06:36 FG GB (6:36) 44-B.Narveson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. ARI 0 – GB 17
  • Q2 04:39 TD GB (4:39) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – GB 23
  • Q2 02:00 TD ARI (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – GB 24
  • Q2 00:07 FG ARI (:07) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – GB 24
  • Q3 09:07 FG ARI (9:07) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 13 – GB 24
  • Q3 03:54 TD GB (3:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – GB 30
  • Q4 09:32 FG GB (9:32) 44-B.Narveson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. ** Injury Update: GB-71-J.Myers has returned to the game. ARI 13 – GB 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to ARI 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:40) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to GB 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Reed to GB 41 for 8 yards (45-D.Gardeck, 32-J.Blount). PENALTY on ARI-32-J.Blount, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at GB 41.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 48%

    (6:48) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to GB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-K.Nixon to GB 10 for no gain (16-M.Melton).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 68%

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson to ARI 22 for 14 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (6:36) 44-B.Narveson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to GB 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at ARI 44 for 39 yards (12-B.Gillikin).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (:07) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

    (9:07) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (2:09) 44-B.Narveson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 90%

    (9:32) 44-B.Narveson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. ** Injury Update: GB-71-J.Myers has returned to the game.