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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(:07) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model