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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model