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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 31 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 44-B.Narveson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model