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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to GB 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at ARI 44 for 39 yards (12-B.Gillikin).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP