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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson to ARI 22 for 14 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model