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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to GB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-K.Nixon to GB 10 for no gain (16-M.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model