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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model