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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

IND
49.2%
JAX
50.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.052 vs Joe Flacco (IND) -0.052 EPA/dropback (IND starting Joe Flacco in place of Anthony Richardson)

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Kenny Moore CB Out Hip
Kwity Paye DE Out Quadricep
Jonathan Taylor RB Out Ankle
Samuel Womack CB Questionable Illness
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Neck
Braden Smith T Questionable Knee
Anthony Richardson QB Questionable Oblique

JAX

Yasir Abdullah LB Questionable Neck
Evan Engram TE Questionable Hamstring
Devin Lloyd LB Questionable Knee
Darnell Savage S Questionable Quadricep
Daniel Thomas S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 34
–
JAX 37

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 TD IND (8:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 08:59 FG JAX (8:59) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 7 – JAX 3
  • Q2 07:12 TD JAX (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – JAX 9
  • Q2 01:47 FG IND (1:47) 7-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – JAX 10
  • Q2 00:06 FG JAX (:06) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 10 – JAX 13
  • Q3 07:21 TD JAX (7:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to IND 1 for 18 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu), and recovers at IND -3. TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – JAX 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – JAX 20
  • Q4 10:05 TD JAX (10:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – JAX 26
  • Q4 06:04 FG IND (6:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – JAX 27
  • Q4 05:21 TD JAX (5:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – JAX 33
  • Q4 04:32 TD IND (4:32) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – JAX 34
  • Q4 02:50 TD IND (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – JAX 34
  • Q4 00:21 FG JAX (:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 34 – JAX 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 86%

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Thomas (40-J.Jones).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%

    (1:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:17) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to JAX 44 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 90-G.Stewart).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:59) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 60 yards to JAX 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 15 for 10 yards (50-S.Olubi; 85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (1:47) 7-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 33%

    (11:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to IND 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 44 for 5 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 65 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to IND 19 for 53 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (6:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to IND 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-J.Downs pushed ob at IND 23 for 11 yards (81-J.Deguara).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.