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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Indianapolis Colts 34

What Actually Happened

(:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model