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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP