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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 44 for 5 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.57 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model