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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to JAX 44 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 90-G.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.46 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model