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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Thomas (40-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model