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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to IND 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model