Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Indianapolis Colts 27

(3:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to IND 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-J.Downs pushed ob at IND 23 for 11 yards (81-J.Deguara).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.44 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model