Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- LA defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- LA offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to GB: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.129 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.239 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
GB
LA
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:52 TD GB (6:52) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 6 – LA 0
- Q2 09:51 TD LA (9:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – LA 6
- Q2 02:12 TD LA (2:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right INTERCEPTED by 39-J.McCollough [0-B.Young] at GB 4. 39-J.McCollough for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – LA 13
- Q2 00:02 FG GB (:02) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – LA 13
- Q3 11:26 TD GB (11:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 85-T.Kraft for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – LA 13
- Q3 04:00 TD GB (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – LA 13
- Q4 03:34 TD LA (3:34) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – LA 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to LA 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for no gain (26-C.Ballentine).
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Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 55%
(12:02) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to GB 8, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-84-H.Long. PENALTY on GB-22-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.
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Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(3:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 86-C.Parkinson.
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Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to GB 45, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 45.
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Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 75%
(14:26) 23-K.Williams right guard to GB 31 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker; 20-J.Bullard).
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Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:33) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to LA 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%
(:02) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%
(14:23) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to GB 7, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
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Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 57 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 28 yards to LA 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-45-Er.Wilson.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 46 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 46%
(1:57) 23-K.Williams up the middle to GB 43 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 21-E.Stokes).
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Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 38 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 66%
(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 86-C.Parkinson [56-E.Cooper].