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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 28 yards to LA 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-45-Er.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.05 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model