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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 92

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to GB 45, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 92, worth -5.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model