4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model