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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to LA 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for no gain (26-C.Ballentine).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model