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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to GB 7, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model