4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 23-K.Williams right guard to GB 31 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker; 20-J.Bullard).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model