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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to LA 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model