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3-2 HC Mike McCarthy
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Pittsburgh Steelers

3-2 HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 20:20 ET Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DAL
42.3%
PIT
57.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Justin Fields (PIT) -0.029 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.125 EPA/dropback
  • DAL defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.001 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than PIT

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23 16–30
–
PIT 25 18–32
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

DAL

Brandin Cooks WR Out Knee
Micah Parsons DE Out Ankle
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Ankle
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Shoulder
Marist Liufau LB Questionable Quadricep

PIT

Alex Highsmith LB Out Groin
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Out Ankle
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Jaylen Warren RB Out Knee
Jeremiah Moon LB Questionable Ankle
Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Groin
Russell Wilson QB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
PIT 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:39 FG DAL (12:39) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 07:36 FG PIT (7:36) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. DAL 3 – PIT 3
  • Q2 08:55 FG DAL (8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 6 – PIT 3
  • Q3 11:56 TD PIT (11:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 83-Co.Heyward for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PIT 9
  • Q4 13:58 TD DAL (13:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 23-R.Dowdle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – PIT 10
  • Q4 05:00 TD PIT (5:00) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – PIT 16
  • Q4 00:26 TD DAL (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – PIT 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 67%

    (12:39) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 89%

    (7:36) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:39) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to PIT 26, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:28) 8-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to DAL 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 29%

    (5:17) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields up the middle to DAL 49 for 2 yards (91-T.Wheat).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%

    (3:13) 8-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to DAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (8:51) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-I.Loudermilk), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger, recovered by DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker at PIT 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 38%

    (7:32) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-41-N.Vigil, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:02) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to DAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 46%

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris left guard to DAL 43 for 1 yard (13-D.Overshown, 58-M.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →