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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-41-N.Vigil, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP