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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 8-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to DAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model