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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to DAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model